When WB Yeats wrote “The Second Coming” in 1919, he inadvertently performed a service for generations of journalists. Faced with a political crisis, commentators can always reach for the familiar quote: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”, before going on to note that: “The best lack all conviction; while the worst are full of passionate intensity”
I was dusting down those lines again, as I watched the rise of Europe’s radical right. But last week’s Dutch election complicates the story. In the Netherlands the centre not only held — it won. Admittedly the moderate, progressive D66 only narrowly came out on top. But D66 is likely to take the lead in forming the next Dutch government — while the far-right Freedom party looks set to lose its role in government. The Dutch election suggests that gloomy narratives about the inexorable rise of the far right across Europe are wide of the mark. The real story looks a bit different.
Across much of Europe, voters are angry and disillusioned — and so swift to vote out incumbents. If the incumbents are the traditional centre parties, then the radical fringes will scoop up the votes. But when the far right actually makes it into government, then voters can swiftly become disillusioned — and turn back to centrist parties at the next opportunity.