The slide of the S&P 500 10-year return into negative territory in 2008 (to -1.4 per cent annualised) will have shocked investors who believe in the “buy and hold” approach to stocks. It has also unleashed a flood of commentary proclaiming the superiority of “active trading” strategies, as we read on these pages last week. Nothing could be further from the truth. Buying and keeping stocks is now more likely to produce good results than at any time in the last 35 years. It is irresponsible to suggest that investors could do better with “real time” trading. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming.
2008年，标准普尔500指数10年平均回报率滑入负值（折合年率为-1.4%），这一消息会令那些信奉“买进并持有”策略的投资者震惊。它同时还引发了大量评论，宣扬“积极交易”策略的优越性，正如我们近来在这些专栏中读到的那样。但事实决非如此。目前，长期持股带来良好回报的可能性，比过去35年中的任何时候都要大。认为投资者进行“实时”交易能获得更好回报，这种说法是不负责任的。有大量证据表明，情况恰恰相反。