“A bad peace is better than a good quarrel,” runs a Russian proverb. Is Vladimir Putin open to a peace deal he can spin at home as a victory, as a way out of his ruinous invasion of Ukraine? Equities and the rouble have rallied after peace talks seemed to make some progress this week. Moscow said it would “dramatically reduce” combat operations near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and northern Chernihiv, ostensibly to increase trust. Ukraine has offered military neutrality and a pledge not to join Nato — one of Moscow’s key demands before the war. There are plenty of reasons to be sceptical, however, that any swift end to the conflict is in prospect.
Despite Russia’s pullback announcement, Ukrainian authorities have reported shells continuing to rain down on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Moscow’s claim to be de-escalating seems, in part, to be cover for retreats that Russian forces had already made as they faced Ukrainian counter-attacks. Such withdrawals are also a chance for Russia to regroup and redeploy its forces in a more concerted effort to expand Russian-held areas in eastern Ukraine and consolidate a “land bridge” to Crimea. Moscow has a history of treating talks and ceasefires as a military tactic — to gain time or divide opponents — rather than steps towards peace.
Any genuine pullback of forces from Kyiv would nonetheless be a tacit Kremlin admission that the war is not going to plan, and that it is scaling back its ambitions. Putin could conceivably still present territorial gains in the east and south as a win to his domestic audience, which has been told the “special military operation” is aimed at “liberating” breakaway Ukrainian regions, especially if Kyiv makes concessions.