“A bad peace is better than a good quarrel,” runs a Russian proverb. Is Vladimir Putin open to a peace deal he can spin at home as a victory, as a way out of his ruinous invasion of Ukraine? Equities and the rouble have rallied after peace talks seemed to make some progress this week. Moscow said it would “dramatically reduce” combat operations near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and northern Chernihiv, ostensibly to increase trust. Ukraine has offered military neutrality and a pledge not to join Nato — one of Moscow’s key demands before the war. There are plenty of reasons to be sceptical, however, that any swift end to the conflict is in prospect.
俄罗斯有句谚语说：“糟糕的和平胜过良好的争吵。”弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)是否愿意接受一项和平协议，在国内把它说成是一场胜利，作为摆脱对乌克兰的破坏性入侵的一种方式？本周和谈似乎取得了一些进展，随后股市和卢布有所回升。莫斯科方面表示，它将“大幅减少”在乌克兰首都基辅和北部切尔尼戈夫(Chernihiv)附近的作战行动，表面上是为了增加信任。乌克兰提出了军事中立和不加入北约的承诺——这是莫斯科方面战前的主要要求之一。然而，我们有充足的理由对这场冲突迅速结束持怀疑态度。