Last week, when the US president stopped waving a stick at Greenland, it was claimed once again that Trump Always Chickens Out. And perhaps he does. But who suffers in the end?
For the US, Taco is no more than a loss of face. For the rest of the world, it poses a strategic dilemma. After all, if the president can be counted on to renege on his threats at the eleventh hour, the incentive to hedge against America — an expensive business, that — is correspondingly weaker. Why not just wait him out?
In other words, it is the hope that gets you. It saps the motivation to become self-sufficient. This threatens to be the tragedy of Europe. Trump offers the continent just enough support to induce a level of complacency but not enough to make the place safe against its enemies. For all his spite, he has still not done what Europe fears most, which is permanently withhold military intelligence from Ukraine or quit Nato or confirm that he would not observe Article 5 if Europe were ever attacked. America’s forward air force base in Ramstein is still there after years of speculation about its future. These twinkles of hope are precious, but also an excuse for Europe to soft-pedal its transition towards being able to look after itself.