Beijing will need to change tack if it hopes to raise China’s low fertility rate. Efforts so far appear to be delivering little success. Official data released on Monday showed that the number of births last year fell to their lowest level since records began in 1949. Deaths, driven largely by old age, continued to climb. Taken together, this means the country’s population shrank for the fourth consecutive year.
China’s demographic decline complicates Xi Jinping’s ambitions. The president wants to double GDP by 2035, complete the country’s transformation into a techno-industrial superpower and expand its influence on the global stage. A smaller workforce will make it harder to sustain rapid economic growth and generate the taxes needed to provide healthcare and financial support for a swelling elderly population.
Beijing’s battle stems in large part from its “one child” policy. Although it scrapped the policy in 2016, its effects linger: at 0.98, the fertility rate is currently far below the 2.1 needed for the population to remain stable. The decades-long measure has also skewed demographics, leaving too few children to look after ageing parents and many living alone. An app called “Are You Dead?”, which can be used to check up on lonely family members, including elders, recently became the most popular paid Apple Store download in the country.