Once artificial intelligence really gets going, how fast can the economy grow? Five per cent a year? Ten per cent? Fifty per cent? Name your number. If you want press coverage, make it a big one.

ARK Invest, an investment manager focused on disruptive innovations, has argued that 7 per cent real GDP growth is plausible. Epoch AI, a think-tank focusing on AI trends, has suggested that growth rates could exceed 20 per cent a year, once certain preconditions are met. Other commentators are vastly more conservative — for example, Nobel laureate economist Daron Acemoglu reckons that over the next few years AI might nudge annual growth rates up by about 0.1 percentage points. That would be nice to have, but not necessarily nice enough to notice.

It’s worth taking a moment to reflect on what such growth rates might mean in practice. At 7 per cent annual growth, an economy would double in size every decade, and, potentially, so might living standards. (Would the proceeds of such growth be widely shared? Another question, for another column.)