This week, the economic mood music changed into a more anxious minor key, as recent shocks to developed world economies have echoed longer and louder than had been expected. Whatever you thought about the economy a week ago, you should be a little more worried than you were.
Inflation has been grinding up for a while — largely a sign of post-pandemic economies running a little out of kilter. Real household incomes fell sharply in many big economies at the end of last year. But following the war in Ukraine and China’s recent lockdowns, the latest US consumer price inflation rate stands at 8.5 per cent. It is at 6.2 per cent for the UK and estimated at 7.5 per cent for the eurozone.
Forward-looking economic indicators had hinted at the risk of a slowdown for some time already — particularly as households found their salaries would go less far. What started as a shock to prices was expected to lead to a hit to spending.