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Alarm bells ring for the Goldilocks world economy
“金发女孩”的隐忧


戴维斯:市场假设美国衰退风险仍很低,增速有望回归趋势水平。但是这种“金发女孩”状态很容易被衰退、金融不稳定或通胀这三只“熊”吃掉。

The financial markets have enjoyed a strong recovery this year, despite growth rates in the global economy — and particularly the advanced economies — continuing to head downwards. With activity nowcasts (the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past) continuing to plummet, and manufacturing sectors weaker than at any time since 2012, markets may have become too complacent about recession risks.

今年以来,金融市场经历强劲复苏,尽管manbetx app苹果 (特别是发达manbetx20客户端下载 体)manbetx20客户端下载 增速继续下行。“即时预测”(nowcast)模型(对当前、最近的将来以及最近的过去的预测)评估的manbetx20客户端下载 活动继续降温,制造业增速不及2012年以来的任何时候,市场可能对于衰退风险已变得满不在乎。

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