How long can the union between Scotland and the rest of the UK survive? Last year’s referendum was supposed to have settled this question for a long time. It has not. On the contrary, the evolution of Scotland’s politics raises doubts all over again. But the question today may be more whether England should leave the union than whether Scotland should.
It now appears possible that the Scottish National party might even win 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats in May’s general election. Because its support is so regionally concentrated, it might attract fewer than 4 per cent of the votes and yet win nearly 9 per cent of the seats. Given the likely distribution of votes for the other parties, the SNP is quite likely to be able to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street.
Why worry about that? Scottish votes have always been important for the Labour party. The difference is what the SNP might want in return. The party is little interested in the fate of the UK — which, after all, it wants to leave. Its interest lies rather in how much it can extract for the benefit of Scotland. If, as a result of its demands, damage were to be done to the rest of the UK, it might regard this not as collateral damage, but as a benefit: the weaker the UK, the less the appeal of staying inside.