专栏统计学

The parable of the ox – or why it is hard to castrate a bull market
公牛和市场


FT专栏作家凯:统计学家高尔顿观察到,人们对公牛体重猜测的平均值接近公牛的实际体重。但没有多少人知道,这个故事接下来会如何发展。

In 1906, the great statistician Francis Galton observed a competition to guess the weight of an ox at a country fair. Eight hundred people entered. Galton, being the kind of man he was, ran statistical tests on the numbers. He discovered that the average guess (1,197lb) was extremely close to the actual weight (1,198lb) of the ox. This story was told b