Commodities gave global equities a run for their money in the first quarter – but have flagged since. Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of raw materials is down 12 per cent from its February peak. Rightly or wrongly, investors treat commodities as an homogeneous group – hence the broad sell-off in resources stocks. But the demand dynamics vary. The oil price has slipped on lower US and European consumption and easing geopolitical stress. Iron ore demand has moderated as export-led growth in Asia adjusts to the slowdown in developed economies, but underlying demand is still strong. In China, consumption of raw materials by exporters is giving way to rising domestic demand. China’s output will still grow much faster than most developed economies, but at a more modest clip in the high single-digits.
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