It sounds dotty to suggest the US is at imminent risk of default. A country that has rarely been able to borrow so cheaply, that issues debt in its own currency and has just demonstrated that it can print as much money as it likes need never miss a coupon payment.
Yet in the past fortnight traders have come to the conclusion that the US might breach its own constitutional clause that its debt “shall not be questioned”. According to Markit, the cost of one-year US credit default swaps, which insure against default, almost tripled in six trading days.
According to this – far from perfect – measure, the US is now more likely to default than Indonesia or Slovenia in the next 12 months.
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