Two years after the fall of Lehman Brothers, and a massive bank bail-out agreed by European governments, the eurozone’s financial sector is still fragile. As we have seen in recent weeks, the Irish banking sector is insolvent, and there are questions about the capacity of the Irish state to absorb those losses. Jürgen Stark, in charge of the monetary policy section of the European Central Bank, last week raised questions about the solvency of the German banking sector. Wherever you look, two years have passed and nothing has been resolved. There has been lots of activity – bail-outs, bad banks – but no resolution. It was always clear that this wait-and-see approach would eventually backfire. It may be happening already.
两年前，雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭，欧洲各国政府一致决定对银行业进行大规模纾困；两年后，欧元区金融业依旧弱不禁风。正如我们近几周来所看到的，爱尔兰银行业已失去偿债能力，同时人们还怀疑爱尔兰政府是否有能力消化这些损失。掌管欧洲央行(ECB)货币政策部门的于尔根•斯塔克(Jürgen Stark)日前还对德国银行业的偿债能力提出了质疑。放眼欧洲各地，你会发现，两年来任何问题都未得到解决。场面确实很热闹（又是纾困，又是分拆出“坏银行”），但没有解决任何事。有一点始终是很清楚的：这种等待和观望战略终有一日会收到相反的效果。这种反效果可能已经显现。