A family feud between the Porsche and Piëch clans; two iconic car companies reflecting that bloodline split; a Qatari fund that may invest billions in either or both; and investors who have given up trying to follow the complexities. And that is only Porsche/Volkswagen. The rescue of carmaker Opel, also based in Germany, is equally tangled.
Each may be highly complex – but these two sagas are quite different. Opel is a classic bankruptcy. It is a mid-sized carmaker with a tarnished brand that loses money. The only reason Opel has had so many suitors – Fiat, Magna, Beijing Automotive and now private equity-backed RHJ – is because governments have guaranteed loans to save the jobs that come with it. Opel's eventual rescue will be nationalisation under another guise.
Porsche, by contrast, is a profitable carmaker. Its problem is the debt it accumulated buying a 51 per cent stake in VW. So Porsche cannot borrow the billions more it would need to exercise options over another 20 per cent, so completing its audacious VW takeover. It is even questionable whether Porsche can service its current €10bn of debts. That is why the sports car maker has sought a Qatari capital injection. The sovereign wealth fund would certainly like to own a slice of VW, via Porsche. However, it does not want to be seen by Berlin as abetting a hostile VW takeover.