专栏萌芽

Absurd ‘green shoots' debate misleads policymakers
不要被“萌芽”论误导


FT专栏作家布里坦:我们不应太起劲地谈论复苏萌芽,这有两大原因:一是涉及潜在产出活动的库存周期,二是涉及股市和大宗商品市场。

Those with short memories have forgotten that “green shoots” became notorious in the UK when Norman Lamont, then British chancellor of the exchequer, proclaimed the beginning of the end of the 1990-92 recession. Lord Lamont later argued that he was not all that wrong in the light of subsequent statistics. We need not enter this historical debate. The point is that his political opponents and many in the financial markets did not believe him and used “green shoots” as an ironic taunt. Yet the same people, or their successors, now talk about green shoots with a straight face, oblivious of historic connotations.

那些记性不好的人已经忘记,当时任英国财务大臣诺曼•拉蒙特(Norman Lamont)宣称1990年至1992年间的manbetx20客户端下载 衰退显示出结束的征兆时,“萌芽”一词在英国变得声名狼藉。后来拉蒙特辩称,根据其后的统计数据,他错得也不是那么离谱。我们不必参与这场历史上的争论。关键是拉蒙特的政治对手以及金融市场中的许多人不相信他,并把“萌芽”当成了讽刺他的把柄。不过,同样是这些人(或他们的继任者),眼下却一本正经地谈论着“萌芽”,忘掉了这个词在历史上的含义。

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