Germany’s economy faces losing around 12 per cent of its annual output — some €429bn — if Russian natural gas supplies stopped abruptly, according to a new study by an adviser to the government.
The study by Tom Krebs, an economics professor at the University of Mannheim who advises the finance ministry in Berlin on economic policy, is more pessimistic than most previous estimates and is likely to stiffen the government’s resolve in resisting calls for an immediate EU embargo on all Russian energy imports.
It is also likely to fuel an often-fraught debate between German economists over whether the country could handle the economic impact of a ban on natural gas.
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