Volvo Cars has been waiting at the lights for years. The Swedish carmaker’s journey back to the stock market was halted in 2018 when Chinese owner Geely scrapped flotation. A subsequent plan to merge and float the two businesses was dropped in February. Now the company is considering an initial public offering. Getting a green signal will require a sensible price.
The last IPO plan stalled when investors baulked at the $30bn sought by Geely. Volvo has advanced since then, particularly on electrification. Shares in peers such as Daimler, BMW, Stellantis and VW trade on an average trailing enterprise value-to-ebitda multiples of 9. If Volvo achieved the same, it would have an enterprise value of almost $20bn, using figures from S&P Capital IQ. The company is likely to argue that its success in China merits a higher valuation. But its operating profit margins are about half those of peers.
Profitability should improve, as battery advances cut the cost of making electric cars. But Volvo has already benefited from a supportive owner. Geely, which paid $1.8bn in 2010 to buy Volvo from Ford, has given it access to funds and shared the capital costs of developing new platforms. That helped the return on capital shoot up to an average of 9 per cent over the past six years, well above that of BMW and VW.