Perhaps it was just a slip of the tongue. Earlier this year, Ursula von der Leyen warned that Europe risked falling under the influence of Russia, China and Turkey. This, she said, would make life “difficult for us”.
It was a terrible gaffe. The president of the European Commission had just lumped together a key Nato ally and longstanding candidate for EU membership with two of Europe’s biggest rivals. A few days later, after the Commission’s press service clumsily retracted the remarks, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan snapped back: “Europe needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe.”
Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism has long made Turkey a difficult and unpredictable ally. Today, conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East and concerns the US may withdraw its security umbrella from Europe are forcing a brutal reassessment. Turkey is no longer viewed as just an awkward European ally. It is a critical strategic partner too.