Corporate America is expected to deliver “exceptionally strong” first-quarter earnings, as a weak dollar and the Trump administration’s tax and spending plans help companies shrug off the fallout from war in the Middle East.
Despite a surge in the oil price since the start of the conflict, analysts’ forecasts for S&P 500 corporate earnings have risen over that period. As reporting season kicks off this week, the index is expected to deliver 12.6 per cent year-on-year earnings growth in the first three months of 2026, according to FactSet data.
On the eve of the war at the end of February, that estimate was for 11.4 per cent earnings growth. FactSet’s estimates show that earnings growth could turn out to be as much as 19 per cent, which would mark the strongest quarter since the end of 2021.