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Trafigura says China oil demand to hit multiyear low in 2026

Commodity trader says growth in India will overtake that in China for first time

India’s oil consumption will grow more quickly than China’s for the first time next year, according to commodities trader Trafigura, in a further sign that the world’s largest crude importer is nearing peak demand. 

“Next year we have one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time,” said Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim at the Financial Times Asia Commodities Summit in Singapore. “For the first time, India’s underlying demand will be larger than China’s.”

Rahim said China’s consumption of road fuels, for a long time the driver of its demand for crude, was now clearly weakening, as adoption of electric cars and, increasingly, electric trucks grows rapidly.  

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