The writer is senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a visiting lecturer at Yale Law School and the author of ‘Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of US Global Supremacy’
No one, perhaps not even Donald Trump, knows where US policy towards China is heading. But Trump’s second term has created significant unknowns, whether it’s what US tariff rates will be in a few months or what’s in store for America’s military alliances. There are some new and notable knowns, too — namely Washington’s willing concession of global leadership in clean energy to Beijing, ratified by Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which guts US federal efforts to promote renewables. All this should prompt a rethink of the pursuit of full-spectrum rivalry with China that much of official Washington envisions. In the world after Trump, a cold war-like posture will be both less warranted and less feasible.
Trump is damaging the US’s already tenuous ability to contain China’s global influence as it once did with the Soviet Union. America’s closest allies never wished to form an anti-China bloc before Trump took office. Now he’s offering most of them slimmer benefits at greater risk. US military power retains its appeal for the countries most directly threatened by China, and Trump’s Pentagon intends to bolster US forces in Asia. Yet his tariffs and threats undercut one of America’s key historical advantages: predictable relationships that won’t be upended in a fit of political pique.