A couple of years ago, taking questions on stage in front of a live audience, I was asked to do my duty as an economist and make an economic forecast. But the questioner had a demanding benchmark for what made a good prediction, informing me that the previous keynote speaker at this conference had been a prominent scientist, who warned of a deadly global pandemic. That was in the autumn of 2019. Would my forecast be as good?
几年前，在台上面对现场观众回答问题时，我被要求履行manbetx20客户端下载 学家的职责，做出manbetx20客户端下载 预测。但提问者对什么是好的预测有一个苛刻的标准，他告诉我，这次会议的前一位主题演讲者是一位著名的科学家，他警告过一场致命的manbetx app苹果 流行病。那是在2019年秋天。我的预测也会这么准吗？
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