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Cathay Pacific's horizon clouded by surging oil prices, fading fare premiums

The Hong Kong airline’s business has rebounded post-pandemic, but investors are reassessing its profitability as fare premiums diminish and the risk from oil price volatility intensifies.

Three years after grounding to a virtual halt, long-haul flights that are the mainstay at Hong Kong International Airport have returned to pre-pandemic levels. That’s signaling the completion of a comeback for Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK), the city’s flagship carrier, after a difficult period that saw its business nosedive.

Full-year results issued by the company last week show that Cathay has largely completed its post-pandemic recovery. But while that turbulence has subsided, new bumpy air still lies ahead as fare premiums gradually fade and the company’s low-cost carrier (LCC) business continues losing money. That’s causing investors to start focusing on the next critical question, namely, can Cathay sustain its profit growth in the current atmosphere of more normal competition?

The company’s latest annual financial report looks impressive. Cathay recorded revenue of HK$117 billion ($14.9 billion) in 2025, up 11.9% from 2024. Its profit reached HK$10.83 billion, up 9.5% from HK$9.89 billion in 2024, marking the third consecutive year it recorded annual profits of around HK$10 billion.

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