It is rare for a central banking institution to model the economic impact of human extinction (spoiler alert: GDP goes to zero). But a startling chart depicting that scenario was shown in a recent research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Forecasting the likely impact of artificial intelligence on US economic growth, the researchers presented three scenarios. Their central forecast was that AI might boost the trend growth of US GDP per capita to 2.1 per cent for 10 years. “Not trivial but not earth shattering either,” the report’s authors, Mark Wynne and Lillian Derr, wrote.
But the bank also considered what might happen if AI achieved the technological singularity, when machine intelligence surpasses the human kind and becomes ever smarter.