It is not often that habitual complacency makes you an astute judge of world events, particularly those involving geopolitical conflict. But for decades a shrug has been the best response to the perennial panics over shortages of critical raw materials for the green transition. The causes have ranged from China threatening to cut off exports of rare earths and other minerals to the soaring global prices of metals such as nickel and lithium. In practice, the routine operation of market forces, plus some support from diplomatic and legal efforts, ensured they had only passing impact.
The latest iteration is the most threatening yet, with China imposing licensing requirements on the export of seven rare earth elements on April 4, apparently to retaliate against President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The burden of proof about serious shortages remains on the pessimists, but if conflict over global mineral trade does arrive the US remains hugely unprepared.
Scarce minerals have, as it were, cried wolf many times. Policymakers worry about bottlenecks — the EU is currently on its fifth list of critical raw materials — but it’s very hard to point at any manufacturing industry in a major economy where a shortage has caused serious damage.