“Trump trade” bets on a stronger dollar and higher bond yields have backfired so far this year, as investors take a more bearish view on the economic fallout from the new US administration’s global trade war.
The US currency has slipped and Treasuries have rallied since early January, confounding widespread investor expectations that President Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs and tax cuts would keep inflation and interest rates high.
“Despite what it feels like, if you really zoom out to the beginning of this year, a lot of the [Trump] trades haven’t worked,” said Jerry Minier, co-head of G10 forex trading at Barclays. “That is causing people to reassess.”
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