The football season is underway, and here is a prediction: Arsenal will be among the top three at the end of it. I am a lot less confident about predicting anything more specific, such as the score when they face my own club, Fulham, on April Fool’s day.
In the same way, I would not dream of predicting exact share prices from week to week. All that really matters is that I identify those companies capable of delivering relative outperformance over the long term.
Equity investing is a long game. Because of that, I am always looking for secular tailwinds that can give well-run companies with competitive advantages a sustained surge of growth to win in that game.
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