The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Not long ago, there was a near-consensus that Japan’s intervention in the foreign exchange market wouldn’t work because the country’s interest rate differential with the US — which propelled the yen to record lows — was simply too powerful.
That consensus reflects somewhat dated research showing that, without capital controls, intervention only works when it is co-ordinated and backed by broader monetary and fiscal policy changes. This conventional wisdom is embedded in the IMF’s core model for assessing the impact of intervention. That model assumes that intervention is completely ineffective for large, open, advanced economies.
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