The oddest aspect of the Joe Biden debate is that Democratic clocks seem to stop after November 5. Whether you want Biden to stay on as the party’s presidential nominee or quit now is based on how you think he would fare against Donald Trump. The small question of whether he would be fit to govern for the next four years rarely surfaces. If minds were focused on his second term, diehard Bidenites would be on even weaker ground. I know of no one who sincerely thinks he could function until January 2029.
As it happens, opinion polls could be making that argument unnecessary. At the national level, Biden has lost a point or two since last week’s debate. In the electoral swing states, however, the numbers have shifted more decisively. Democratic-leaning states, such as New Hampshire and Minnesota, are potentially in play. A few more days of this and calls for the president to withdraw will turn into a clamour. Even a sentimental party flinches when it stares defeat in the face.
But public opinion can change. One good interview by Biden, or a couple of passable speeches, could pause the recent drift. On Friday ABC will release Biden’s first interview since the debate. His bar has now fallen so low that he might clear it. All he needs do is sound modestly coherent in a controlled setting with a friendly interviewer. It would give little reassurance that he would avoid last week’s disaster at his second debate with Trump in September. But it would buy him a reprieve.