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Gillian Tett: Look back to judge chances of a global future

Maybe it’s time to dust off John Maynard Keynes’s warning about taking borderless prosperity for granted

Just over a century ago, John Maynard Keynes lamented the dangers of being complacent about globalisation. In 1919, in his book The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes noted that, before the recently ended first world war, “the inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep.”

He (economists assumed, then, that economic actors were male) could “adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world” and “secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality”. Moreover, this state of affairs was “normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement”.

Thus “the projects and politics of militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of monopolies, restrictions, and exclusion were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper.” In plain English: people had taken globalisation so completely for granted that they rarely gave it much thought — and assumed that the free movement of people, money and objects would continue indefinitely. War had seemed like a relic of the past.

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吉莲•邰蒂

吉莲•邰蒂(Gillian Tett)担任英国《金融时报》的助理主编,负责manbetx app苹果 金融市场的报导。2009年3月,她荣获英国出版业年度记者。她1993年加入FT,曾经被派往前苏联和欧洲地区工作。1997年,她担任FT东京分社社长。2003年,她回到伦敦,成为Lex专栏的副主编。邰蒂在剑桥大学获得社会人文学博士学位。她会讲法语、俄语、日语和波斯语。

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