观点展望2024

Buckle up — the inflation battle is entering a new phase
通胀斗争进入新阶段

The US, UK and eurozone are on course to declare victory this year but difficult trade-offs await
贾尔斯:美国、英国和欧元区有望在今年宣布抗击通胀取得胜利,但艰难的权衡还在后面。

There is a fair chance that by the time the trees come into leaf in Washington, Frankfurt and London, this decade’s inflation crisis will definitively be over. The eye of the storm has already passed and prices have been rising at rates no higher than central banks’ targets in recent months.In the six months between May and November last year, for example, the annualised rate of consumer price inflation was only 0.6 per cent in the UK and 2.7 per cent in the eurozone. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, annualised core rates of inflation were 2.4 per cent in both economic areas over the same period. In the US, the equivalent measure — the Federal Reserve’s favoured personal consumption expenditure deflator — was just 1.9 per cent with a headline rate of 2 per cent.

当华盛顿、法兰克福和伦敦的树木长出叶子时,本十年的通胀危机很有可能已经结束。风暴中心已经过去,近几个月来,物价一直在以不高于央行目标的速度上涨。

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