We tend to think about the economy in binary terms. Recession: yes or no? Will markets be up or down? Will interest rates rise or fall? The answer to the latter question, at least in the US, appears to be “fall,” as the Federal Reserve held rates steady during its meeting last week while hinting that we could see as many as three rate cuts next year. That has, of course, buoyed stock markets, which have gone long on the soft landing story. But economic reality in 2024 is likely to be far less binary, and much more nuanced, than many market participants and policymakers believe.There are three reasons for this. The first and most obvious is that the pandemic and the policy response to it has made it very difficult to predict where the US and global economy will be based on old models. Employment, wages and other key metrics are refusing to follow historic trends in many places. Second, decoupling and the rise of industrial policy have introduced a new dynamic into fiscal policy and trade relations — one that will continue to play out no matter who wins the US presidential election next year.
我们倾向于用二元的方式来思考manbetx20客户端下载 。manbetx20客户端下载 衰退：是或不是？市场是上涨还是下跌？利率会上升还是下降？后一个问题的答案，至少在美国，似乎是“下降”，因为美联储(Federal Reserve)在上周的会议上保持利率不变，同时暗示明年我们可能会看到多达三次降息。当然，这提振了股市，而股市早就根据软着陆的故事走高了。但2024年的manbetx20客户端下载 现实可能远没有许多市场参与者和政策制定者认为的那么二元化，而是更加微妙。