What did Hamas hope to achieve by its attack on Israel of October 7? The answer was surely to set the region aflame. More narrowly, it was to provoke the response we see, with inevitable consequences for Israel’s global reputation and the prospects for peace in the region. The strategy, in other words, is to make martyrs of the people of Gaza in a greater cause. Alas, it is working.
The way this unfolds will have implications for human lives, the regional balance of power and perhaps even global peace. But it also has implications for the global economy, which has been battered by a series of shocks over the past four years: Covid-19, the post-Covid inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and now this. How big a shock then will this latest horror prove to be?
This is more than a matter of dollars and cents. According to a “special focus” chapter of the World Bank’s most recent Commodity Markets Outlook, on the “Potential Near-Term Implications of the Conflict in the Middle East”, the number of people suffering from severe food insecurity jumped by more than 200mn between 2019 and 2021. The Russia-Ukraine war must have made this considerably worse, though the facts are not yet available. This is partly because of its direct effect on food prices and partly because of higher energy prices. Another big jump in energy prices would make this worse.