How is one to assess the possibility of a voluntary default by the world’s most important country? Is something as mad as this really likely to happen? What might be the consequences if it did? These questions are impossible to answer. This is not because it is a “black swan” — that is, unimaginable. A US default falls instead into a broad category of “known unknowns”, that is unforecastable, high-impact events. The financial crisis of 2007-09, the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were of this kind.
如何评估世界上最重要国家自愿违约的可能性？如此疯狂的事情真有可能发生吗？如果真的发生了，可能会有什么后果？这些问题是无法回答的。这并非因为它是“黑天鹅”事件（难以想象的事情）。相反，美国违约属于“已知的未知”这一宽泛类别，也就是无法预测、冲击力却很大的事件。2007年至2009年的金融危机、新冠疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰都属于这一类事件。
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