Midterm defeats can upend US presidencies. Think of Newt Gingrich’s new model Republicans in 1994, Nancy Pelosi’s Democratic wave in 2006, or the Tea Party sweep of 2010. These sounded the death knell for the domestic agendas of Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama respectively. If Democrats lose next week, a similar fate would befall Joe Biden. Yet the 2022 race belongs in a class of its own. Roughly half the Republicans running for federal or statewide office believe the presidency was stolen from Donald Trump in 2020. That means America’s system itself is on the ballot next Tuesday.
The main thing Democrats have going for them is a dread of what their defeat would portend for the US republic. By most historic measures, Biden’s party should be heading for a drubbing. Inflation is at a 40-year high. The murder rate is on the rise. And the president’s approval rating is stuck far below the 50 per cent that has previously been needed for his party to retain control of Congress. Most polls suggest Republicans will capture both chambers. But US pollsters are suffering from a crisis of self-confidence. Their models may be overcompensating for having missed the strength of Republican turnout in the past three cycles.
A good night for Republicans would have two consequences. The more trivial one would be a return to toxic gridlock in Washington. Republicans would pretend to impeach Biden and Democrats would pretend to care. It is largely discounted in the price. Washington’s political theatre is getting progressively nastier. But the real-world impact is limited. Such kabuki may even benefit Biden if he stands again in 2024. The more of a madhouse Congress chooses to be, the more Biden could make a virtue of his advancing maturity. The only real damage Republicans could wreak is if they follow through on their threat not to raise the US debt ceiling. That could trigger a market crash. Most of the rest is ghoulish posturing.