The writer is a finance professor at Peking University and a senior associate at the Carnegie China CenterChina’s export growth has been the brightest spot in an otherwise gloomy economic performance this year as the country heads towards the Communist party’s 20th national congress this month.
Industrial output in the first eight months of 2022 was up a relatively weak 3.6 per cent over the same period in 2021, while total consumption stagnated, with retail sales up just 0.5 per cent. In contrast, exports grew a generous 14.2 per cent, and China’s trade surplus rocketed 57.7 per cent.
Economists are worried, however, that China may have reached the end of this period of rapid export growth, posing difficult policy choices for Beijing. Container-shipping costs for the next few months are way down, signalling what may become a contraction in exports as American and European consumers — struggling with weak economies — cut back on imports for the all-important Christmas season.