For the last few decades, globalisation and disinflation have gone hand in hand. As multinational companies grew far beyond the confines of individual nation states, they were able to use technology, outsourcing and economies of scale to drive down prices. Cheap labour, cheap capital and cheap commodities kept them down.
Now war in Ukraine has put an end to cheap Russian gas. The global push towards carbon neutrality will ultimately add a permanent tax on fossil fuel usage. Decoupling between the US and China means an end to “efficient” (aka cheap) but fragile supply chains. The end of quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve’s rate rises are putting a cap on easy money.
Aspects of this new reality are welcome. Counting on autocratic governments for crucial supplies was never a great idea. Expecting countries with wildly different political economies to abide by a single trade regime was naive.