The writer is chair of Rockefeller International
US stocks have pulled back from the edge of the cliff — the 20 per cent drop that defines a bear market. Now many people are wondering how this drama, still the worst start of any year since 1970, ends. My view is that this is the intermission, and that the next act will bring another step down.
Past patterns suggest as much. Records for the S&P 500 going back to 1926 show a total of 15 bear markets, with a median drop of 34 per cent over 17 months. In nearly 75 per cent of these cases — 11 of the 15 — selling paused noticeably when the market was down 15 to 20 per cent from the peak, reversing some losses before resuming the trip to the bottom. This roughly sketched history suggests that what we are witnessing is the intermission stage of a bear market.