Wheat and other grain prices have soared since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But those prices are not an adequate picture of the problems with losing Ukrainian grain exports.
The disruption of grain exports from Ukraine and Russia through the Black Sea will probably lead to physical shortages of food in the world, particularly for countries dependent on those supplies.
If the war is prolonged, it will impact millions of people living in places such as Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia. That could have political consequences. Local and imported grain shortages have been cited as one of the causes of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, as well as the Syrian civil war.
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