The writer is a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and chief economist at Kroll
The last time the European Central Bank raised interest rates, in 2011, then president Jean-Claude Trichet cited “sharp increases in energy and food prices”. The economy tanked, and the rate rises were quickly reversed. Now, food and energy prices are soaring again. This month, ECB president Christine Lagarde refused to rule out rate increases in 2022, and hawkish members of the governing council have urged quicker tightening. They risk repeating Trichet’s mistake.
Eurozone inflation has exceeded the ECB’s target of 2 per cent since the middle of last year, accelerating to 5.1 per cent in January, the highest in more than 20 years. Inflation was forecast to slow as Germany’s 2020 value added tax cut and new CO2 tax dropped out of the annual comparison. This was a surprise, and Lagarde is right to be concerned.