观点新型冠状病毒

Scrap 2020 GDP data to find a path out of the harm done by coronavirus

Traditional output estimates will mislead reconstruction efforts so we must focus on the numbers that matter

The writer is professor of political arithmetic at the University of Amsterdam

Now that Covid-19 vaccines have become a reality, policymakers can finally begin to design countermeasures against the pandemic’s economic damage. But how to assess that harm, and where to find guidance for future strategies?

Estimates of 2020 gross domestic product that survey the hit to national production loom large in public debate and in comparisons across national economies. Yet they hide both good and bad news under the rubble of the pandemic and are useless in navigating our economies.

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