Last summer around this time, I did an interview with Ulf Lindahl, the chief executive of currency manager AG Bisset. At the time there was growing concern that the unwinding of the unprecedented corporate debt bubble created over the past decade could cause a sharp economic downturn.
He put forth a novel idea — that global tourism might be at the centre of the storm when it struck. “Everyone goes on vacation”, he said, “but it’s also the thing that you can cut back on quickly — unlike your car or your phone.”
If people did stop travelling because of some unforeseen economic shock, he posited, the effects would ricochet through nearly every industry and business, from manufacturing to real estate, restaurants, luxury goods, financial services — you name it. All this would risk setting off a raft of corporate insolvencies, high unemployment and a sharp downturn.