At this time of year, it is traditional for market economists to release detailed macro forecasts for the 12 months ahead. I am alarmed to find that I am now completing my fifth decade of performing this difficult exercise, with much less than perfect success so far. Important economic and market dislocations do not cram themselves neatly into a calendar year.
每年到了这个时候，市场manbetx20客户端下载 学家都会发布对未来12个月的详细宏观预测。令我自己都讶异的是，我正在为进行这项困难尝试的第五个十年画上句号，到目前为止离完美的成功预测还差得很远。manbetx20客户端下载 以及市场的重大动荡可不会整整齐齐地把自己挤进一个自然年。
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