September has started badly for the global economy. The step up in tariffs on US imports from China at the beginning of the month and the deepening of manufacturing weakness in the US heightened concerns over the health of the world’s two largest economies. Service sectors globally remain resilient in the face of the manufacturing malaise, with the gap remaining at an unprecedented high in August. But with no imminent end to the trade war it is only a matter of time before the trade-related weakness in investment spills over into consumption.
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