India’s impending elections have suffused the national conversation with the rhetoric of political game theory. The debate focuses on the competitive populism of politicians, on job creation, farmer distress, the banking crisis, religious polarisation, Pakistan’s gamesmanship and, occasionally, how best to counter China’s moves on the geopolitical chessboard.
Amid the clamour of political campaigns it makes sense to pause and look ahead a few decades to the India of 2050 and ask what might be the best path to unleashing its potential dynamism.
On current trends, it is safe to say that India in 2050 would be a $28tn economy, up tenfold from the current $2.8tn. That would translate to a $17,000 per capita income — slightly below where Greece is today, although much above it on a purchasing power parity basis. The boost would have profound implications, not only for businesses operating in India but for social indicators in financial markets as India becomes an exporter of capital and, geopolitically, as its foreign exchange reserves approach the top of the global league tables.