January weather in Davos predictably brings bright skies, cold air and a strong chance of snow. The political climate tends to be more changeable. Since the first Davos meeting in 1971, the World Economic Forum has witnessed dramatic shifts in the geopolitical weather.
The first two decades took place against a cold war background. The period from 1989 until 2001 was shaped by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the integration of former Communist nations into the global economy. After 9/11, the “war on terror”, the Iraq invasion and its aftermath dominated the agenda. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the backlash against globalisation and the rise of populism have set the scene.
Today’s US government is emphasising a new and ominous theme. The Trump administration’s national security strategy puts “great power competition” at the centre of US foreign policy. The White House argues that it is forced to respond to the assertive and destabilising actions of authoritarian powers, in particular Russia and China. It points to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and to China’s disputed claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea.