There are lots of reasons to be pessimistic about the prospects for China Minsheng Bank.
Some of them are fundamental, the sort of universal issues that portend weakness and therefore downside risk for investors. Crucially for the bank, there is a complex mix of finance and politics, given that several of Minsheng’s large shareholders have fallen foul of China’s crackdown on companies that have borrowed large amounts of money to finance a wave of foreign investments.
The likes of Anbang Insurance, Fosun, Dalian Wanda and HNA Group have infuriated regulators with their lack of financial prudence, their excess borrowing, and their investments abroad at a time when authorities are trying to limit capital outflows. Unfortunately for Minsheng, it has close ties with two of the four companies that are targeted: Anbang and Fosun.