Could Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front (FN), become the next president of France? Since January, opinion polls have consistently suggested that she will win around 26 per cent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election at the end of April, a score in line with those the FN achieved in the European Parliament elections in 2014 and the regional elections in 2015.
More recent polls have her at between 23 and 24 per cent, but this would still be enough to ensure she makes it into the run-off in early May. But once there, her chances of prevailing are slim to non-existent. Since President François Hollande withdrew from the race in December, no poll has had Ms Le Pen winning in the second round against the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron or indeed any other opponent. Most surveys give her a second-round score of around 40 per cent.
However, we should be clear that polls of second-round voting intentions are of limited use. It is difficult for voters to predict with any confidence how they would behave when they do not yet know what would be on offer.