The dollar value of exports from emerging market countries will rise next year for the first time since 2014, helped by higher commodity prices and modestly stronger demand, it is predicted.
The recovery may help allay some of the gloom around emerging market countries, many of which used strong export growth as a springboard for rapid economic advancement in the early years of this century, before the export boom turned to bust.
“We will see a lot of headlines about [emerging market export growth] picking up in the first half of 2017,” says Bhanu Baweja, head of EM cross asset strategy at UBS, who believes EM exports will show year-on-year growth of between 8 and 13 per cent in dollar terms in the first quarter of this year, “a complete postcode away” from the negative numbers currently being reported.